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A CRITICAL REVIEW OF VAN
Earthquake Prediction from Seismic Electrical Signals
edited by Sir James Lighthill (Univ. College London)
The acronym VAN refers to Drs Varotsos, Alexopoulos and Nomicos, members of a group based in the University of Athens and led by Professor Varotsos (head of the Physics Department) which for over a decade has sought to use electric-field measurements between electrodes buried in the earth to predict earthquakes in Greece over periods of order one month or less. But is such "short-term" prediction achievable by the VAN approach (or by any other)? This book is an objective collection of the arguments for — and the counterarguments against — that approach, intended to help scientific readers arrive at their own answers to this important question, as well as to others (including that of VAN's "export" potential).
Contents:
- What is VAN?:
- Introduction to the VAN Method of
Earthquake Prediction (S Uyeda)
- Short Term Earthquake Prediction in Greece by Seismic Electrical Signals (P Varotsos et al.)
- The Telemetric System of VAN Group (K Nomicos)
- Possible SES Mechanisms:
- Physical Mechanisms for Generation and Propagation of Seismic Electrical Signals (D Lazarus)
- Laboratory Investigation of the Electrical Signals Preceding Earthquakes (V Hadjicontis & C Mavromatou)
- On Electrotelluric Signals (P Bernard & J L LeMouël)
- Counterarguments Against the VAN Approach:
- VAN: A Critical Evaluation (R J Geller)
- Foreshocks Preceding VAN Signals (SES) (K Sudo)
- Brief Summary of Some Reasons Why the VAN Hypothesis for Predicting Earthquakes has to be Rejected (M Wyss)
- Arguments in Favour of the VAN Approach:
- Some Observations about the Statistical Significance and Physical Mechanisms of the VAN Method of Earthquake Prediction, Greece (S K Park et al.)
- Re-Examination of Statistical Evaluation of the SES Prediction in Greece (K Hamada)
- Anomalous Changes in Geoelectric Potential Preceding Four Earthquakes in Japan (T Nagao et al.)
- Some Related Experimental Programmes:
- Behaviour of the Electric Potential During the Activity of Aftershocks of the M7.2 Earthquake, Japan (Y Honkura et al.)
- Implementation of VAN Technique in Guatemala (O Kulhánek)
- Reactions to the Review Meeting:
- A Seismologist's View of VAN (H Kanamori)
- Some Personal Conclusions from the Meeting (C W A Browitt)
- A Brief Look Back at the Review Meeting's Proceedings (J Lighthill)
- Non-Seismological Fields in Earthquake Prediction Research (V I Keilis-Borok)
- and other papers by distinguished authors
Readership: Geophysicists, earth scientists and mathematicians.
| 388pp |
Pub. date: Mar 1996 |
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