edited by Sir James Lighthill (Univ. College London)

The acronym VAN refers to Drs Varotsos, Alexopoulos and Nomicos, members of a group based in the University of Athens and led by Professor Varotsos (head of the Physics Department) which for over a decade has sought to use electric-field measurements between electrodes buried in the earth to predict earthquakes in Greece over periods of order one month or less. But is such “short-term” prediction achievable by the VAN approach (or by any other)? This book is an objective collection of the arguments for — and the counterarguments against — that approach, intended to help scientific readers arrive at their own answers to this important question, as well as to others (including that of VAN's “export” potential).

• What is VAN?:
  • Introduction to the VAN Method of Earthquake Prediction (S Uyeda)
  • Short Term Earthquake Prediction in Greece by Seismic Electrical Signals (P Varotsos et al.)
  • The Telemetric System of VAN Group (K Nomicos)
• Possible SES Mechanisms:
  • Physical Mechanisms for Generation and Propagation of Seismic Electrical Signals (D Lazarus)
  • Laboratory Investigation of the Electrical Signals Preceding Earthquakes (V Hadjicontis & C Mavromatou)
  • On Electrotelluric Signals (P Bernard & J L LeMouël)
• Counterarguments Against the VAN Approach:
  • VAN: A Critical Evaluation (R J Geller)
  • Foreshocks Preceding VAN Signals (SES) (K Sudo)
  • Brief Summary of Some Reasons Why the VAN Hypothesis for Predicting Earthquakes has to be Rejected (M Wyss)
• Arguments in Favour of the VAN Approach:
  • Some Observations about the Statistical Significance and Physical Mechanisms of the VAN Method of Earthquake Prediction, Greece (S K Park et al.)
  • Re-Examination of Statistical Evaluation of the SES Prediction in Greece (K Hamada)
  • Anomalous Changes in Geoelectric Potential Preceding Four Earthquakes in Japan (T Nagao et al.)
• Some Related Experimental Programmes:
  • Behaviour of the Electric Potential During the Activity of Aftershocks of the M7.2 Earthquake, Japan (Y Honkura et al.)
  • Implementation of VAN Technique in Guatemala (O Kulhánek)
• Reactions to the Review Meeting:
  • A Seismologist's View of VAN (H Kanamori)
  • Some Personal Conclusions from the Meeting (C W A Browitt)
  • A Brief Look Back at the Review Meeting's Proceedings (J Lighthill)
  • Non-Seismological Fields in Earthquake Prediction Research (V I Keilis-Borok)
  • and other papers by distinguished authors